Nuclear Weapons Management -- Global Concerns
A Special Role for India
Admiral L Ramdas
15 Nov 2004
Hiroshima,
Nagasaki and the termination of World War II ushered in the race
for
acquiring nuclear weapons. The United States was soon followed by, the Soviet Union,
United Kingdom, France and China. During the cold war period India had taken a principled
stand to force these countries to work towards total nuclear disarmament. Some
of these were; firstly the contribution of India in the successful conclusion of the
Partial Test Ban Treaty. Second, the six powers initiative taken during Indira
Gandhis tenure and thirdly the comprehensive proposals made by Shri Rajiv Gandhi at
the United Nations in June 1989. Despite our peaceful nuclear experiment of 1974, India
had taken a very deliberate policy decision to continue working towards attaining global
nuclear disarmament.
The
arrival of the BJP led NDA coalition government at the center in March 1998, ushered in a
major shift in Indian Governments nuclear weapons policy. The nuclear tests at
Pokhran on 11 May 1998 reciprocated by Pakistan at Chagai Hills on May 28,1998, introduced
a new dynamic to regional and South Asian security. When viewed in the context of the
continuing strained relations between India and Pakistan these developments in South Asia
were seen as the latest and most dangerous nuclear flash point by the
International community.
Without
going into the virtues or otherwise of possessing the Bomb; now having acquired the
capability to harm millions in the neighbourhood including ourselves, we need to take a
hard look at the challenge this poses and to evolve a safety regime which will at least
reduce if not totally eradicate the horrors of yet another nuclear war, or nuclear
disaster or accident.
This short paper is an attempt to face the realities as they exist today and to see how best to manage the existing regional and global situation. It will also examine briefly a potential role for India in enabling a workable, non- discriminatory safety regime which will be acceptable to all the main players in this game.
In addition to the
five Nuclear Weapon States, India and Pakistan; both Israel and North Korea are also
believed to possess these weapons. Inspite of repeated efforts by almost all the non
nuclear weapon states to persuade the Nuclear Weapon States to commence nuclear
disarmament in accordance with Art 6 of the NPT, they have failed. Nor is there any
likelihood of this happening in the foreseeable future. One thing though is very clear
that all these weapon capable states have acquired these weapons primarily to protect
themselves from the threat perceived from one or more of those who belong to this league.
This has naturally
led almost all the non nuclear weapon states who are signatories to the Non Proliferation
Treaty to lose all faith in the Nuclear Weapon States, and also with India and Pakistan,
although these two are non signatories of the NPT.
The
situation is further complicated by each Nuclear Weapon capable country having its own
brand of nuclear doctrine, which in turn can give rise to serious misunderstandings
and lead to dangerous situations. This ambiguity needs to be removed.
It
is clear that to improve the situation we need to evolve a consensus amongst primarily the
nuclear weapon capable states for they are the only ones who can either disturb world
safety and security or shape its well being. Since this only involves seven or eight
countries the task becomes slightly easier to manage.
It
is therefore recommended that India consider doing the following :
a. Convene
a meeting of all nuclear weapon capable states in New Delhi at the earliest convenience
without any fixed agenda other than to agree to discuss all aspects of the nuclear
question. The first round could be a meeting of officials and technocrats for a
brainstorming session and possibly to identify an agenda for subsequent meetings to be
held at political levels.
b. Address
issues concerning nuclear weapons doctrines, and explore the possibilities of evolving
some common workable doctrine to avoid ambiguity or misunderstanding.
c. Evolve
a new workable nuclear management regime that will address issues concerning nuclear
disasters, nuclear accidents and other such unforeseen events so as to mobilise global
resources for meeting such contingencies.
This
approach might lead to some understanding for a nuclear cease fire, as also to
implementing other safety measures like de-alerting. Taken to its logical conclusion this
could be a fore-runner of next steps for the down sizing of weapons arsenals ultimately
leading to zero levels. In
case one or more of the members of this league are reluctant to come on board for the
first round of discussions we should move on with those who are willing to join and make
headway.
Not
only will such a move by India be welcomed by the international community, but it will
also help shore up the morale of the non nuclear capable nations. It is my considered view
that an initiative of this nature emanating from India at this stage would be difficult
for any one of these weapon capable countries to turn down especially if it is convened
without any special agenda, and conceptualised as a brainstorming session.
Many
initiatives have been taken over the past six decades to contain the proliferation of
nuclear weapons, and to achieve nuclear disarmament, but nothing substantial has come out
of it. We need a strategy which is new and
different in this fast changing global environment if we are to succeed.
The
ultimate goal of nuclear disarmament can only be realised if we can put in place a new
global nuclear management regime which is fair, non discriminatory and workable. The time
has come for India to show the way to make this happen.